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"What's in a Graph"

Diagram: Line graph from 1997 to 2025 comparing China, the EU, and the USA. © Henrik Müller​/​Institute of Journalism
Prof. Henrik Müller has recently started a new commentary and analysis format on substack.

The format is called “What's in a Graph”. Every other week, Müller presents awe-inducing figures and discusses them from an economic policy perspective. In the Feb 11 edition, Müller highlights the fact that European external surpluses have been very high ever since the Euro crisis of the early 2010s.

This is no way to run a big economy.“

The European Union is running one of the world’s largest current account surpluses, on par with China’s, a development that has largely escaped public and political attention. What is often seen as a sign of economic strength may, in fact, conceal deeper structural weaknesses.

A new analysis argues that Europe’s long-standing dependence on external demand is increasingly risky, exposing the EU to international tensions and sudden shocks. It also raises questions about weak domestic investment, slowing growth, and rising social strains.

Why these imbalances emerged, why they matter now, and what Europe could do to escape this trap is the focus of the article.