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Diagram: Plots uncertainty perception indicator (UPI) and inflation perception indicator (IPI) on a shared timeline. © Henrik Müller​/​Institute of Journalism
War, inflation, political tensions and AI are fueling uncertainty. New data reveal how these shocks are shaping economic expectations.

Political turmoil, debt and technological disruption are piling up, confronting economies and societies with a series of shocks. New indicators from the Dortmund Center for data-based Media Analysis (DoCMA) show how deeply this climate of uncertainty is reflected in the public discourse and that people's expectations are likely to have a negative effect on economic activity. 

By analyzing millions of newspaper articles, the researchers track changes in the attention given to economic uncertainty and inflation over time. The results point to a striking feature of the current environment: uncertainty is no longer tied to a single crisis. Instead, several disruptive forces are occurring at the same time and reinforce a broader perception of instability. 

A research note published in August 2026 sheds light on the underlying methodology of the Inflation Perception Indicator (IPI) and the Uncertainty Perception Index (UPI), respectively. It updates these indicators with recent data, showing that both IPI and UPI remain at elevated levels with recurrent peaks that reflect times of great economic and societal distress. 

Resources

Müller, H., Schmidt, T., Schmidt, T., Rieger, J. & Jentsch, C. (2026). When the Whip Comes Down. Updating our Indictors capturing Inflation and Uncertainty Perception – a Research Note. DoCMA Working Paper #15. DOI: 10.17877/DE290R-26916

Schmidt, T., Schmidt, T., Müller, H. et al. Changing inflation perception and the propagation of news shocks. Empirical Economics 71, 30 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-026-02964-9

Müller, H., Blagov, B., Rieger, J., Schmidt, T. & Jentsch, C. (2025). The macroeconomic impact of asymmetric uncertainty shocks. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries 31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00410